Strategic scenarios, concepts that assist business managers in developing market interventions, represent the action component of strategic management. In some fields of public policy (especially national defense and electoral politics) scenarios have been discussed for years. For the most part, however, a theory of action involving specific scenarios has not been given attention by scholars of public policy and administration. In this article, the literature of these fields, along with that of business strategy, is reviewed and synthesized for the purpose of beginning the process of developing a theory of action for managers of public policy. Two concepts in particular – the agency power matrix and the change scenario – are presented as necessary components of this theory. When completed, the theory of strategic action should be viewed as an integral part of the literature of strategic management.

Strategic management literature written for business firms provides executives with a sequence of sophisticated procedures for achieving corporate objectives in their chosen markets. Beyond procedures, however, this particular body of literature also conceptualizes possible scenarios that the firm may choose to follow (Leontiades, 1982; Tourangeau, 1981). Scenarios are stimulated courses of action that map alternative moves by the firm and likely reactions of competitors. In short, strategic management procedures allow business executives to plan and implement courses of action in the form of “if … then” propositions.

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